Harnessing solar power effectively and efficiently in a rapidly developing solar array for the home market is an ongoing challenge faced by many solar companies. As an avid solar enthusiast, I am excited to share an interesting update about a breakthrough in solar power forecast strategy – something that could potentially benefit you if you are considering solar panels for your home.
Typically, solar companies offering solar panels for your home participate in electricity spot markets – a place where electricity is bought and sold in real-time. The key to a solar company’s optimality in such markets depends on their ability to make accurate and beneficial bids. To help in this, an international research team developed a method that could optimize bidding results. This approach considers the inherent uncertain nature of PV (photovoltaic) power generation and is aimed at maximizing the solar company’s revenues while reducing imbalances.
How do they do this?
The team uses a technique that turns probabilistic solar power forecasts into ‘scenarios’. These interdependent scenarios are then used in a multi-stage bidding strategy. The objective here is precise forecasts that can schedule the dispatch of power generators and batteries in a timely manner. This ensures grid stability and reduces the need for balancing reserves.
The method employed here is the Pinson method which was originally developed for wind power forecasting. This method has found successful application in net load forecasting which involves subtracting the demand with solar generation. The Pinson method helps generate a range of possible power outputs or scenarios based on probabilistic models.
After establishing several scenarios, the solar company generates a bid by solving numerical problems. Then the initial bid is corrected in the intraday market (IM) using updated PV power forecasts, considering the implications of real-time deviations on both the up and down-regulation.
These forecasts based on the Pinson method outperformed single predicted value models when tested on a simulated 1 MW system data from the Netherlands. The results indicate higher revenues and less imbalance, showcasing the potential of the new method.
Perhaps most significant for people wanting solar panels for their home is the learned trend that expanding from day-ahead market (DAM) to the intraday market (IM) results in increased revenues – showing a rise of 22.3%. This implies that with effective implementation, adopting solar power may start becoming even more economically viable for all parties involved.
The takeaway? Solar companies are continually innovating to improve their services. With this new bidding strategy, the benefits may trickle down to the consumer – offering cheaper and more efficient solar arrays for homes, a win that not only helps our pockets but also the environment.
Optimizing the energy market may seem like a small step, but this brings us one step closer to a greener and brighter future. Learning about the solar industry and these breakthroughs is fundamental to making informed decisions about employing solar panels for your home. So, stay tuned in and powered up!
Original Articlehttps://pv-magazine-usa.com/2024/08/08/new-bidding-strategy-for-pv-asset-owners-operating-in-spot-market/
