Trending Downward: How Competition Drives the Decline in Solar Panel Prices

Hello Solar Enthusiasts,

As a solar expert, I’ve been tracking the rise of solar technology with keen interest, and the surge in solar installation worldwide attests to the fact, that solar is indeed the future. It’s blooming directly under our sun and it’s time we absorb the warmth of this news.

Contrary to expectations, the Covid-19 pandemic spurred on an increased demand for solar systems globally. This demand is projected to even grow in 2024, with module demand positioning to reach a remarkable 492 GW to 538 GW.

Now, this is the fascinating part! The Chinese solar market, a major player in the solar industry, has experienced rapid demand growth over the last two years. In spite of high PV module prices in 2022, small-scale, distributed-generation (DG) projects assumed approximately 60% of the market. However, with supply chain issues becoming less of a problem, module prices started experiencing a decline in 2023. This decline encouraged the installation of utility-scale projects, contributing to 55% of the solar market in the fourth quarter of 2023.

In 2024, it’s been estimated that China’s module demand will reach an impressive 245 GW to 255 GW, yep – that’s a 7% to 11% spike from 2023. Growth has slowed comparatively but the numbers are still staggering.

If you are pondering on installing solar panels for your home, it’s worth noting that some provinces capped grid connections for DG projects in the second half of 2023, and so it’s expected that the home solar market will slow down in 2024.

However, the soothing news is that businesses seeking cost reductions could push the commercial and industrial solar segment growth in 2024. Ground-mounted PV will depend on grid connections, even as provincial rules for agrivoltaics, fishery PV, and floating solar are being set.

In terms of the manufacturing sector, no new polysilicon production capacity is anticipated in the first quarter of 2024. However, key producers such as Yongxiang, Daqo, and GCL are looking to commission new lines in late June 2024.

Monthly wafer production of 65 GW to 68 GW in the second quarter of 2024 will facilitate quarterly output of 200 GW to 205 GW. Vertically integrated manufacturers are escalating production to maintain line operation and feed their solar cell and module businesses.

Cell production is projected to hit 200 GW to 210 GW during the second quarter, with monthly outputs of negatively-doped, “n-type” products anticipated to strike 69 GW to 71 GW in April and May 2024.

In conclusion, the solar industry is blazing with high inventory levels across the supply chain, surplus production capacity, and modest demand growth. Falling module prices indicate more affordability, which hopefully, should spur an increasing adoption of solar panels for your homes, offices, and even your farming fields.

Remember, if you are looking for the top solar companies to install the perfect solar array for your home, consider their service quality, module quality, and post-installation services. The future is solar, and we are right in it!

Shine on, guys!

Author: Solar Blogger

Original Article

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